The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the official interest on hold this week but a reduction in the cash rate seems more likely now than it has in years, according to comparison site Finder.
All 28 experts in Finder’s RBA cash rate survey correctly predicted that the RBA would hold at 1.50% on Tuesday, but their predictions have changed dramatically about the direction of the next RBA move.
For the past two years, about 80% of experts have predicted an increase as the next cash rate move by the RBA. But this month, only 11 of the 28 experts did so.
Stephen Koukoulas, managing director at Market Economics, says he could see a change happen as soon as next month. “The RBA will acknowledge the economy is weaker than when it last met and will signal a change in bias towards an easing,” he says.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, says the panelists who put a date on their rate drop predictions were evenly spread from March to November.